Bitcoin’s 2026 Forecast Uncertain, But Galaxy Digital Eyes $250,000 by 2027

Bitcoin faces a challenging outlook for 2026, with uncertainty stemming from volatile market conditions and macroeconomic risks. According to Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, the cryptocurrency is likely to experience unpredictability in the coming year. Despite this, the firm maintains an ambitious target of $250,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2027.

Thorn highlighted that current market dynamics, including options pricing and a decrease in volatility, complicate predictions for Bitcoin in 2026. In a recent statement, he noted that overlapping macroeconomic challenges make the cryptocurrency particularly hard to forecast. As outlined in Galaxy Research’s report released on December 18, Bitcoin appears to be evolving into a more stable asset, akin to traditional macro assets rather than remaining a high-growth investment.

The cryptocurrency market is currently deep in a bear phase, with Bitcoin struggling to regain bullish momentum. Thorn indicated that until Bitcoin consistently trades above the $100,000 to $105,000 range, the potential for downside risk remains significant.

The derivatives markets reflect this uncertainty, with options pricing suggesting divergent potential outcomes for Bitcoin in the near future. Thorn reported that traders are assigning comparable probabilities to Bitcoin prices near $70,000 or $130,000 by mid-2026, as well as $50,000 or $250,000 by year-end. Such a wide range in expectations indicates that institutional investors are preparing for considerable price fluctuations rather than a clear market trend.

Beneath these surface-level uncertainties, Thorn identified signs of structural changes within the Bitcoin market. He pointed out a decline in long-term Bitcoin volatility, which measures price fluctuations over extended periods. This shift, he explained, is partly due to the rise of institutional investment strategies, including options overwriting and yield-generation programs, which help stabilize extreme price movements.

Thorn emphasized that this evolution in the market suggests that a potentially uneventful or “boring” year in 2026 would not detract from Bitcoin’s long-term viability. He anticipates that institutional adoption and market maturation will continue, regardless of short-term price actions. The firm’s report also highlighted a significant potential for Bitcoin to be included in major asset-allocation platforms, which could embed the cryptocurrency into standard investment strategies, thereby ensuring steady flow regardless of market conditions.

In addition to structural adoption, Thorn believes that expanding institutional access, potential easing of monetary policy, and increasing demand for alternatives to fiat currencies could position Bitcoin as a hedge against monetary debasement, akin to gold. Galaxy Digital remains confident in its long-term outlook, projecting that Bitcoin could indeed reach $250,000 by the end of 2027.

As the market navigates these complexities, the outlook for Bitcoin remains a topic of keen interest among investors and analysts alike. Thorn’s insights suggest that while 2026 may present challenges, the foundations for Bitcoin’s growth and integration into global financial systems are steadily being laid.