EU Launches Five-Year Defense Plan to Counter Russian Threat

The European Union has unveiled a strategic defense plan aimed at fortifying Europe’s military capabilities against potential threats from Russia by the end of the decade. On Thursday, EU officials announced their intentions to bolster defenses, particularly in light of recent airspace violations attributed to Russian activities near Europe’s borders, including those with Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia itself.

A key component of this initiative, known as the European Drone Defense Initiative, focuses on establishing systems to detect, track, and neutralize unauthorized drones. This move comes after a series of concerning incidents that have raised alarms among EU member states. The proposed measures are part of a broader framework dubbed Eastern Flank Watch, which seeks to enhance military readiness along Europe’s eastern borders, covering land, air, and maritime domains.

Comprehensive Defense Strategy

The EU aims to have initial drone defense systems operational by December 2024, with full functionality expected by late 2027. The Eastern Flank Watch initiative is targeted for completion by the end of 2028. In addition, separate air and space shields for Europe are also in the planning stages. According to Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, “Over the next few years, there must be a major buildup of European defense capabilities.” She expressed concern that while Russia may not currently possess the capability to launch an attack on the EU, it could develop such capabilities in the future, emphasizing that the threat would persist beyond the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine.

The European Commission will present its Defense Readiness Roadmap 2030 to leaders of the 27 EU member states during a summit in Brussels next week. This roadmap outlines a checklist of defense equipment for national governments to procure within the next five years. The discussions among EU leaders in Copenhagen earlier this month indicated a growing consensus on the need for enhanced defense measures.

Funding and Joint Operations

Implementing this ambitious plan will require significant financial investment. The European Commission projects that defense spending across the EU will reach approximately 392 billion euros (about $457 billion) in 2023, nearly double the figure from four years ago when Russia initiated its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Over the next decade, the Commission estimates that EU nations may need to allocate around 3.4 trillion euros (about $4 trillion) for defense initiatives.

To facilitate this, the Commission aims to propose an increase in the EU’s long-term budget dedicated to defense and space, increasing it to 131 billion euros (approximately $153 billion). Funding for improving military logistics, including transport routes and infrastructure enhancement, is expected to see a tenfold increase to 17.6 billion euros (around $20.5 billion).

The roadmap encourages EU member countries to identify leaders for specific projects and to initiate them within the first half of 2024. By late 2027, at least 40% of military purchases are expected to be conducted jointly, promoting cost efficiency and interoperability among member states’ armed forces. Critical capabilities, such as drones and satellites, are to be finalized by the end of 2028, with the entire process completed by 2030.

Another vital aspect of the plan is to extend security guarantees to Ukraine. Kallas stated, “Ukraine is still Europe’s first line of defense,” underscoring the importance of a robust Ukrainian defense industry and military. One objective is to establish a drone alliance with Ukraine by early 2024, further integrating Ukrainian defensive capabilities into the broader European strategy.

As the EU moves forward with this comprehensive defense plan, the commitment to enhancing collective military readiness reflects a significant shift in the security landscape of Europe, driven by the ongoing geopolitical challenges posed by Russia.