F-35 vs. F-16: The Future of Air Combat Unfolds by 2025

The transition from the F-16 Fighting Falcon to the F-35 Lightning II is reshaping air combat capabilities across the globe. As the United States Air Force (USAF) phases out the F-16, squadrons are increasingly adopting the F-35, a trend mirrored by naval and marine forces. This evolution is evident in various regions, including Europe, the Pacific, and the Middle East, where nations such as the United Kingdom, Italy, Norway, Australia, Japan, and Israel have already integrated the Joint Strike Fighter into their fleets. Countries like Poland, Switzerland, and Greece are also in the process of ordering the advanced aircraft.

A direct comparison between the F-35, often referred to as “Fat Amy,” and the F-16, known as the “Viper,” reveals a significant generational shift in design and military strategy. Although the F-35 is a supersonic aircraft, its top speed is less than that of the F-16, primarily due to its emphasis on stealth technology. The F-35 features a shape designed to minimize its radar cross-section, which, along with radar-absorbent materials and internal weapons bays, allows it to operate effectively in contested airspace where the F-16 would be vulnerable.

Stealth and BVR Capabilities Define the F-35

The F-35’s superiority lies in its stealth and beyond visual range (BVR) capabilities. The aircraft is engineered under the assumption that future air-to-air combat will occur at long distances. Its advanced technology enables it to detect, track, and eliminate enemy targets before they become aware of its presence. While the F-35’s sensors and armament provide an advantage in dogfighting scenarios, its slower top speed and maneuverability highlight a trade-off compared to the F-16. Yet, in modern warfare, engaging in close-range combat is increasingly viewed as a tactical failure.

The specifications of the F-16C/D illustrate its capabilities as a multirole fighter. With a thrust of 27,000 pounds and a wingspan of 32 feet, 8 inches, the F-16 can reach speeds of up to 1,500 mph (Mach 2 at altitude). It boasts a range of over 2,002 miles and can carry substantial payloads, including two 2,000-pound bombs and a combination of air-to-air missiles. Despite these advantages, the F-16’s role is diminishing in an environment where fifth-generation platforms like the F-35 dominate.

Conversely, the F-35 serves as a networked multirole sensor platform rather than a traditional single-mission fighter. Its design allows it to act as a central node, gathering and sharing intelligence with other aircraft, thus enhancing the effectiveness and survivability of allied forces. The F-35 can engage in electronic warfare, gather intelligence, and establish air dominance, making it a versatile asset in modern combat scenarios.

Transforming Air Combat Strategies

The introduction of the F-35 is reshaping the USAF’s long-standing “high-low” fighter mix. The F-16 historically represented the “low” end of this spectrum, serving as a cost-effective option for less demanding missions. In contrast, the F-35 is positioned as the “high” end, capable of penetrating heavily defended airspace. This shift consolidates the mission profiles of various fourth-generation aircraft into a single, stealthy platform. The F-35’s design enhances its survivability against advanced threats, redefining the tactical landscape.

Furthermore, the F-35 program, initiated under the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) initiative, offers significant logistical and interoperability advantages. The commonality of the F-35 airframe streamlines maintenance and supply chain operations across the military branches and their international partners. Notably, on July 2, 2025, during a ceremony in Sardinia, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto announced plans to establish the first F-35 fighter pilot training school outside the United States, further solidifying Italy’s role in the global F-35 initiative. Crosetto stated, “The future is built not by limiting ourselves to defence, but by making defence a social, economic, and technological innovation engine.”

The F-35 program’s ongoing costs are significant, surpassing previous defense projects, including the historic Manhattan Project and the development of the Boeing B-29 Superfortress. Despite the challenges related to cost overruns and delays, the program benefits from economies of scale, allowing for reduced costs per aircraft over time.

As of now, the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Italy lead the F-35 initiative, with around 3,000 airframes planned in various configurations. While the United States maintains control over nearly two-thirds of the global fleet, international partners are steadily increasing their F-35 inventories to bolster collective defense measures.

The F-16, with more than 4,600 units produced and currently operated by approximately twenty-five countries, has played a crucial role in air combat for decades. However, the F-35’s advanced technologies position it as a formidable competitor against near-peer adversaries such as China and Russia. With the F-35’s integration into allied air forces worldwide, it enhances extended deterrence and sends a unified message of resilience against potential aggressors.

As air combat continues to evolve, the F-35 is set to lead the charge, while legacy platforms like the F-16 adapt to new roles within a transformed military landscape.