Nasdaq 100 Forecast Indicates Potential Upswing Through April 2026

The Nasdaq 100 index is at a critical juncture, with recent analysis suggesting a potential upward trend through April 2026. Using the *Elliott Wave Principle*, analysts had anticipated a peak at around 26500. Instead, the index reached a high of 25835 before retracing to its current level of 24780, prompting a reevaluation of its market trajectory.

In previous updates, the index demonstrated a pattern consistent with the Elliott Wave structure. It peaked at 25827 for Wave-3, declined to 25504 for Wave-4, and then reached 25835 for Wave-5. Although these movements aligned with expectations, the failure to breach the anticipated 26500 mark raises concerns. Analysts now interpret the recent peak as part of a larger Wave-1 in a more extensive fifth wave sequence, with current movements suggesting a decline towards approximately 24600.

Market Indicators and Future Projections

Despite the recent downward movement, the Advance/Declining line (NYAD) has reached a new all-time high. This divergence implies that a bear market may not yet be in formation. Historically, such markets are characterized by negative divergences, where rising prices do not correlate with advancing market breadth. Should the Nasdaq 100 maintain its position above the November 21 low of 23854, analysts predict a potential rally towards 28000+ by late April 2026.

The projected timeline for a market peak aligns with significant historical patterns. For instance, midterm election-year seasonality typically indicates a peak around April 18. Additionally, the Armstrong Pi-cycle turn dates suggest a notable market peak could occur around April 28. Past cycles have proven reliable, predicting notable corrections such as the March-April “Trump Tariff Tantrum” and the 2024 market correction.

Historical Accuracy of Market Predictions

The reliability of the Pi-cycle is underscored by its historical performance. It has accurately predicted several market turning points, including a peak between November 24, 2021, and January 3, 2022, which preceded a substantial bear market of nearly 37%. Other significant predictions included corrections on September 19, 2018, July 27, 2015, and April 25, 2011. Analysts emphasize the importance of vigilance as these cycles approach.

In summary, if the Nasdaq 100 maintains its position above 23854, the outlook remains bullish, with the potential for continued growth through early next year. Conversely, a decline below this threshold would strongly indicate the onset of a bear market. Observers should stay attuned to market movements, particularly as critical dates in 2026 approach.